Poll after poll has shown that Donald Trump will lose his bid for re-election come Election Day on November 3rd.
And not only will he lose, but according to many of the most frequently cited polls, his opponent Joe Biden will crush him with a double digit lead.
And for anyone who has turned on the news this month, that’s the message they will have walked away with: Biden is leading by a wide margin and will win in a landslide.
However, cracks have already begun to show in that narrative. In an article published earlier this month, I explained why Trump is actually the one heading for a landslide victory in November. Suffice it to say, Biden is only winning if you look at polling data, which is notorious for being incomplete at best, or, some say, outright rigged at worst.
But when you look at historic indicators that can’t be manipulated or rigged, like Trump’s primary voter turnout, it predicts Trump will be re-elected. So basically, our least accurate and least trustworthy data suggests Biden will win, while our most accurate and most trustworthy data suggests the opposite.
Still, let’s put all that aside for now. Beyond primary voter turnout, in-party approval, and a recent Gallup survey showing more than half of Americans feel better off today compared to four years ago, despite being in the midst of a global pandemic, what other evidence do we have that Trump will win?
First, before we dive into why Trump will win, let’s dive further into why the polls that show Biden leading are flat-out wrong.
One of the most surprising polls that showed Biden winning came from Rasmussen, which is usually known for publishing polls that are positive for Trump. The fact they published a poll that showed Biden nationally leading by 12 points was a shocker for many people, including Biden supporters.
However, whenever you see such a drastic change in numbers, you have to ask yourself a few questions: (1) Did the polling firm oversample any demographic? (2) Was the poll weighted to counter any oversampling, and if so, how was it weighted? (3) What metrics did the polling firm use to reach its conclusions?
In the case of the Rasmussen poll, it apparently weighted its polls with one very unusual assumption: It assumed Trump would only receive 73% of his own party’s votes. Keep in mind, Trump received 94% of votes cast in this year’s Republican primary, and 88% of registered Republican votes in 2016’s general election.
There were far more Never Trump Republicans four years ago than there are today, so it’s very odd that Rasmussen would skew its own polling so heavily in that direction. And it’s no wonder with the poll weighted that drastically that their data showed Biden beating Trump at levels not seen since FDR’s historic re-election landslide in 1944, during World War II. Biden may be a lot of things, but FDR he is not.
Maybe Rasmussen was just testing out new polling methods, or perhaps they were trying to rid themselves of their reputation for being too kind to Trump in previous polls. Who knows. But one thing’s for sure, that specific poll was not accurate.
Interestingly enough, it’s not just me saying this. Biden’s own campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, warned supporters last Friday that national public polling numbers are being massively inflated.
“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” O’Malley Dillon said during a virtual grassroots summit for Biden’s campaign. Her comments were confirmed by New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher.
Another factor to consider is new voter registration. In swing states like Pennsylvania, over 200,000 newly registered voters joined the Republican Party. Those voters make up the bulk of new registrations in that state. JP Morgan’s internal analyses of state trends suggests that new voter registration is a strong indicator for election results – especially in battleground states – and they believe this is a huge blind spot in national polling.
Going off of data extrapolated from voter registration suggests Trump will also walk away with North Carolina and Florida, while retaining Arizona.
And, to the surprise of no one, Trump will win Texas. Somehow quite a few pundits have fantasized about Texas being in play this election and even flipping to Democrats. That fever dream simply isn’t supported by any data, not even early voting numbers, and it’s alarming how mainstream that theory has gotten. Trump has a better chance at flipping California than Biden has of flipping Texas, and Trump’s chances of flipping California are still in fantasy territory.
In the long term, Texas looks like it will become a blue state over the course of this decade, but it’s just not viable for Democrats in this election cycle.
So, with Trump not only having the incumbent advantage, but also having historically high in-party support, with a party that is breaking records with new voter registrations in key battleground states, combined with how badly we now know national polling has been conducted to the point that Biden’s own campaign manager is admitting Biden is not leading by double digits – Trump’s victory looks all but assured as long as his supporters get out and vote for him.
It’s beginning to feel a lot like déjà vu, as these predictions of a Biden landslide echo strong similarities to the now embarrassingly bad predictions of a Clinton landslide in 2016.